This newsletter is a bit late. I hoped to have more time during the Passover holiday, but work took precedence and except for craving for pasta, it was business as usual. Thank you for those who emailed to remind me that I’m overdue.
About the photo: I get to meet interesting tenants. This photo was taken in Cartersville, GA at an apartment of a very special tenant who let me take a photo with two of her babies. She has many more... These are real hyper-realistic lifelike dolls that look and feel exactly like the real thing. This artist creates dolls and pets for TV shows, theatre, displays, etc. They seemed so real that I held them very gently and the property manager, who took the photo, laughed quietly so they wouldn't wake up…
In 40 Broad, we bought 30 properties, a total of 227 units in Myrtle Beach, SC. All properties will be upgraded to a higher standard. In addition, we bought a 14-room motel (La Dolce Vita) in North Myrtle Beach. The motel is located on N. Ocean Blvd., across from the ocean. We also signed a contract on a 37-suite motel (The Pelican) in North Myrtle Beach. The motel has its own beachfront and a beach pool.
In GREI, we bought a 15 building student housing complex in Carrollton, GA. University Lofts was built on the fence of The University of West Georgia. We are upgrading all units and converting two thirds of the units from standard 4BR to 3BR with a master bedroom since we believe that there's a higher demand for this product in the market. Construction period is estimated at 6 months.
La Dolce Vita
A 14-unit motel in North Myrtle Beach
The Pelican
37 suites with a beachfront pool in North Myrtle Beach
Myrtle Beach
30 multifamily properties, 227 units
Atlanta, GA
15 building Student Housing
I bought properties in the Southeast simply because it was kinder to my wallet. Real estate in the South tumbled in the crash of 2008 and properties were cheap. No one expected then the boom we’re experiencing now. I wrote many times about New York’s real estate and I wrote about Georgia and South Carolina in the South. It’s time to pay respect to the greater southern territory of the USA.
The Sunbelt (also known as the Spanish Belt) is the area that stretches from the Old South in the East across the continent to the Southwest. It is defined as areas in the continental U.S. below 36 degrees north latitude. The region comprises 15 States, all under the blue line in the illustration above. These are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California (South), Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada (South), New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.
There were two major migrations to this area. The first one between 1940 and 1950 when many migrated from the North and East primarily because of better transportation that led to the expansion of urban areas. Air conditioning, lower taxes, wages, desegregation, and weaker unions also contributed to the postwar growth of the South. Another major migration occurred between 1970 and 1990 when the South grew in population by 36% and the West by 51%, both well above the national average. The Sunbelt attracted then domestic and international businesses for many reasons, including lower energy costs, nonunion wages, State policies favorable to business, and in the West, proximity to the increasingly important Pacific Rim nations. Two more peaks occurred also in 2004-2005 that added 600,000 individuals to this region, and 2014-2015 that added 500,000 people to the area. We are now seeing the third wave. It was accelerated by the pandemic but the trend was already in motion.
At the end of World War II, the South was the nation’s poorest region, with per capita income barely one-half of the national average. In 2020 Forbes Magazine compared real personal income per capita by US State. Real personal income per capita is income per person adjusted for State price level differences and national inflation, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This indicator reflects the purchasing power more accurately than nominal income. The South is still poorer, but only by 5% to 15% lower than the national average (CA is an outlier with 8% over the average). However, when checking the increase in real personal wages between 2015 and 2020, the Sunbelt States lead with New Mexico ranked 6th with 16.30% increase, GA is 7th with 15.20%, SC and AZ are 9th and 10th with 14.90% increase. The trend shows that the South is expanding much faster than the rest of the nation.
So what are the reasons for this recent population shift?
Warm weather and nicer winters. This was always a good reason. Some southern areas have a brutal summer that is worse than Brooklyn in mid-August... But in general it’s more attractive to most people that prefer warm weather over the northern snowstorms.
Cost of living. The Sunbelt is relatively inexpensive. Not only real estate, which is definitely a component that comprises over a third of most people's expenses. But everything else from food to education to healthcare to childcare. Prices are higher now, but still, living in a major Sunbelt city is less expensive.
Work. The Sun Belt expanded while the Rust Belt shrank, even before the pandemic. During the pandemic many Sunbelt States had negative job growth of less than -5% while the North was struggling with higher rates of -8% and even -10% in New York. Many moved to the South when given the opportunity to work from home. More corporations relocated to the South because of State incentives and most importantly because of the next reason:
Taxes. Except for California, Sunbelt States traditionally have moderate tax rates. Four States have 0% income tax: Florida, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Corporate State tax is also moderate. Click here to view. This reason alone is a strong driver for relocation.
Politics. No, I’m not going to discuss politics 😊. You may click here to see the Biden vs. Trump vote map by State. I also added a map above that shows that the South is gaining political power while the North is losing electors. This doesn’t mean that the red color will become more dominant. Some Sunbelt States are now purple and redistricting is an issue.
Over the past decade, the Sunbelt accounted for 75% of total U.S. population growth. Over the next decade, Sunbelt population growth is expected to accelerate by another 19 million (13%), while non-Sunbelt states are forecast to rise by only 3 million (2%). The region now holds about 50% of the national population and is expected to rise to about 55% by 2030.
To conclude, we are now seeing the third migration wave into the Sunbelt. For real estate investors this means one thing: Follow The Sun! 🌞
This publication is personal and not for general circulation. It does not form part of any offer or recommendation. It does not take into consideration investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person. Prior to committing to an investment, please seek advice from a licensed professional regarding the suitability of the product for you and read the relevant product offer documents, including the risk disclosures, If you do not wish to seek financial advice, please consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you.
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