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Erez Miller

Winter 2024/25 Update

The photo above was snapped in beautiful Galicia, Spain, between Pontevedra and Caldas de Reis. This year, I managed to sneak in a few days and walked part of the enchanting Camino de Santiago pilgrimage in Northern Spain. As a typical tourist, I tried to take in as much as possible, which left my feet sore but my spirit soaring. If you're thinking about exploring this popular trail, you can find all the details here.


I've spent the summer in Atlanta working on our properties there and then returned to Israel for my son's wedding and the holidays. You'd think that Portugal, being halfway between the U.S. and Israel, would be an ideal destination. However, traveling between the US, Portugal, and Israel has been quite a juggling act. Most international airlines stopped serving Israel because of the war, and even those still flying may cancel flights at a moment's notice.


2024 has now officially become the worst year for Single Family Home Sales since 1995.Multifamily sales fared better, but rent freezes mean valuations remain much lower than most business plans anticipated.


Hannah Apartments

Hurricane Helene left a trail of devastation in Georgia, damaging some properties in our area. But every cloud has a silver lining; we seized the opportunity to replace the roof with a sturdier one that will last 50 years. Or at least until the next hurricane...


The first project in Porto has officially sold out! While selling properties in Portugal is relatively straightforward these days, development presents its own challenges. The high demand for construction is currently met with a limited supply of skilled builders, leading to rising construction costs.

Portugal is currently witnessing a substantial influx of international investors. Approximately 70% of foreign investors in Portugal are Americans, followed by investors from the UK and France. American investors in Portuguese real estate typically share certain common characteristics:


Retirees and Pre-Retirees: Seeking a better quality of life and lower cost of living in their retirement years. Portugal's mild climate, rich culture, and affordable real estate make it an attractive destination.

Remote Workers and Digital Nomads: With the rise of remote work, many Americans are drawn to Portugal's Digital Nomad Visa, allowing them to live and work in the country while enjoying its high quality of life.

Wealthy Individuals and Families: The Golden Visa program, offering residency in exchange for certain real estate investments, attracts high-net-worth individuals and families looking for investment opportunities and a second home. While the rules have changed and it’s not as simple as it used to be, the program is still available.

Real Estate Investors: Some Americans see Portugal as a strategic investment due to its growing tourism sector, increasing property values, and attractive rental yields. Portugal's favorable economic conditions, safety, healthcare system, and blend of modernity and tradition are appealing factors.

Americans generally favor Lisbon, the capital, over Porto. While Lisbon has its charm, I believe the availability of flights plays a significant role. There are direct flights to Lisbon from NYC, Boston, Miami, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington DC. Porto, on the other hand, has non-stop flights only from NYC and Boston, and not daily. Personally, I prefer Porto—it's pretty, more intimate, and close to the breathtaking Douro River Valley. Plus, I think that Porto has more real estate upside potential than Lisbon which is already expensive.


Foreign investment isn’t the only reason for the real estate boom. To help local young families, the Portuguese Government is subsidizing young people under 35, allowing banks to offer them 100% mortgages to buy their first home. Anyone with basic knowledge of Economics can see this would drive higher real estate prices. Currently, prices are inching up, with the clientele mainly being local.

 



I remember being quite surprised when I rented my first apartment in Manhattan. The documentation required by the condo board felt quite extensive. I had to provide bank statements, copies of pay stubs, copy of my SSN, copy of my DL, sign a waiver, pay application fee, and recommendation letters from six people, preferably in high standing. For those without a US background, it can be hard to understand why such an investigation is necessary just to secure a place to live.


It’s only when you become a landlord that you realize evictions and rent delinquency are major issues in the US. Every property and asset manager has to deal with evictions regularly, even in Class A properties.


The following graph presents a comparison of eviction rates across several OECD countries. The USA stands out as the leader by a significant margin. It's important to note that different countries have varying regulations, so this isn't an exact comparison. Nonetheless, the chart clearly illustrates that evictions are a significant issue in the USA.

OECD Evictions

Number of initiated tenant eviction procedures, court eviction orders and actual evictions of tenants as a share of all rental households (2023 or latest year available)


The US government doesn't collect eviction data, and many state governments don't either. Instead, eviction records are housed within county court systems and can be very difficult to access. New York City is probably the most notorious in this respect, having a reputation for being unfriendly to landlords. Southern States are more flexible with eviction laws, yet Atlanta, especially Fulton County, has its share of problems in this area.


Princeton University has identified this issue and started an “Eviction Lab” that monitors this area in certain locations. Let's check their data.


The red dots on their map represent over 1 million eviction filings in the last 12 months across just 36 cities and 10 states.

Eviction Tracking System


It's a staggering number. NYC leads with 125,677 filings, but when examining the filing rate (the number of evictions filed per 100 renter households), Greenville, SC takes the lead with 24%, followed by Memphis, TN (17%), Phoenix, AZ (16%), and Richmond, VA (16%). Not all tenants get evicted, but not all delinquencies get filed against, indicating that the problem is even larger than the numbers suggest.


About half of the defendants were White, 30% Black, and 15% Latin. Women represent 58% of those facing eviction, a disproportionate number of whom are Black and Latin women.


I checked some States not monitored by Princeton, adjusting for population size. It's clear that Maryland is the undisputed leader in evictions. This map shows eviction rates, where you'd ideally want to see very little red over a lot of blue (no pun intended). You may click the image to search further.


Eviction Filing Rate


The pandemic complicated the statistics due to population shifts and an eviction ban, followed by a surge in evictions when the ban was lifted. Recent raw data isn’t very helpful unless corrected to account for these events.


The eviction process used to be simple, but it has become more bureaucratic. Courts require landlords to follow specific steps properly, or they risk having their cases dropped. For example, in Atlanta, the process includes:


Notice to Vacate: The landlord must give the tenant a notice to vacate or correct a violation, such as nonpayment of rent or lease violations.

Filing a Dispossessory Proceeding: If the tenant doesn't comply, the landlord files a dispossessory proceeding at the County Magistrate Court.

Service of Dispossessory: The notice is served on the tenant by the Marshal's Office or a private process server.

Tenant's Response: The tenant has seven days to respond. If they don't, the landlord can request an eviction.

Court Hearing: If the tenant responds, a court hearing is scheduled. The judge decides whether the eviction is justified.

Writ of Possession: If the landlord wins, the court issues a writ of possession.

Eviction Execution: The writ is given to the Marshal's Department, which schedules and executes the eviction.


This process is time-consuming and filled with legal hurdles, which is why most landlords use agencies and attorneys, though their services are costly. Delays can occur if the tenant is sick, has social reasons preventing eviction, or pays part of the rent to avoid eviction. Some courts are backed up, and the landlord may have to wait months for a hearing. Even with a writ issued, the Marshal might be busy for months. These factors mean landlords suffer financially from evictions and rent delinquencies.


It's obvious why landlords try to vet tenants thoroughly before signing a lease. But tenants, too, would prefer not to get evicted. So what are the common reasons for eviction?


Financial Hardship: Unexpected financial difficulties, such as job loss or medical emergencies, make it hard to keep up with rent. American households save just under 7% of their income, which is low compared to other OECD countries like Japan, where the savings rate is about 40%. See image below.

Habitual Late Payments: Consistently paying rent late can accumulate high late fees, eventually leading to eviction.

Lease Agreement Violations: Violating terms of the lease, like unauthorized pets or subletting without permission.

Property Damage: Significant damage beyond normal wear and tear.

Disruptive Behavior: Engaging in disruptive or criminal activities.


Personal Savings Rate by Country 2024

© World Population Review


Being evicted affects a person’s ability to rent again. When applying for a lease, property managers refer applications to screening agencies that produce Tenant Screening Reports listing rental histories, including evictions. These records usually stay on the report for at least seven years. A landlord might accept a tenant with an eviction history but may require a higher deposit to cover potential future issues, adding financial burden on the tenant.


Addressing this situation requires educating people on financial responsibility. About 42% of Americans don’t save and have less than $1,000 in savings. Most can only live for about two weeks without pay. American consumer culture does tend to encourage spending, often beyond one's means. Factors like easy access to credit, aggressive marketing, and societal norms around consumerism can lead people to spend more than they might otherwise. Rent is the highest expense for most households, making it vulnerable to income loss. Yet, many do not realize the implications of eviction. 


To secure a brighter future for Americans, it is imperative that lawmakers and education boards prioritize the inclusion of financial responsibility education in high school curricula.


 

This publication is personal and not for general circulation. It does not form part of any offer or recommendation. It does not take into consideration investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person. Prior to committing to an investment, please seek advice from a licensed professional regarding the suitability of the product for you and read the relevant product offer documents, including the risk disclosures, If you do not wish to seek financial advice, please consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you.

 


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